Tuesday 28 July 2009

Opposition to Obama is overwhelmingly...in the south

I'm sure this comes as a great shock to you: southern folks don't like our black President.

Notwithstanding the outright lies peddled at length by Rasmussen, Obama's approval/disapproval differential is at least plus-20 nationally, which is very bad news for the Republicans.

But its gets worse for the GOP. Not only is hard-core opposition to Obama limited almost exclusively to Republicans, it is overwhelmingly coming from southerners. Obama's approval/disapproval is close to plus-40 in the West and Midwest, and over +70 in the Northeast. Only in the South is his differential in the negative numbers.

Specifically, Obama's negatives are heavily concentrated in what I call the "Planet Wingnut Belt" where Obama's negatives are toxically high: the Wingnut belt runs from West Virginia down through Tennessee and Mississippi, and also across the river to Oklahoma. On the internet somewhere, there is a map showing where Obama did even worse than John Kerry in the presidential election, and it depicts Planet Wingnut perfectly -- that diagonal smear from West Virginia down to Mississippi perfectly exposes where most of our rednecks, white trash and outright racists are.

So in 2012 Obama is going to own everything from Maine down to Maryland, the Midwest all the way over to Minnesota, and the Pacific Coast. That's 291 electoral votes right there, enough to win. Then Obama attacks the GOP in fourteen states: NM, NV, CO, AZ, TX, Montana, the Dakotas, Missouri, and the five states running from Virginia to Florida. Those five southern states account for 78 electoral votes all by themselves, and they are not in the Wingnut Belt: they do contain some wingnuts, but not in the heavy concentrations you would find in Mississippi, for example. That's why Obama won three of those coastal states, and will have a shot at the other two next time.

And that means that the GOP will control Planet Wingnut, and the Democrats will get everything else. Which is only fitting because the wingnuts have taken over the GOP and worked with might and main to expel everyone to the left of Mussolini.

And now to dispose of the GOP whining. First, the poll was conducted, not by the dreaded Kos, but by Research 2000. And yes, I know, it's only 2009, but Obama is unlikely to face many serious threats to his presidency once he passes health care reform. That's why the Republicans are fighting health reform so viciously: they know this is their last chance to change the political map for the years to come.


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