Thursday 28 May 2009

The GOP war on Hispanics, and the impact on 2012

Bookmark all this stuff for 2012: the GOP's effort to characterize Latinos as illegal immigrants, their holy war against Sotomayor, and their characterization of La Raza as the Latin KKK...

...And we'll see how much Hispanic support for the GOP drops in 2012. Currently it's around 30 percent. How long is it going to stay that high, when the GOP seems hell-bent on conveying the same image of Hispanics that they do for terrorists -- litle brown Klan-style extremists infiltrating our country!! AACCKK!

Fellas, you can't spin up your base by demonizing Hispanics, and then turn around and ask Hispanics for their votes. The loons in your base really are that stupid, but the Mexicans aren't. They know caca de toro when someone tries to sell them a sackful of it (as you can see I am not bilingual).

Hispanics made up almost 10 percent of the vote in 2008. So if the Hispanic GOP vote drops from 30 to 20 percent in 2012, that means the GOP loses a point nationally. And if that one percent is in the wrong places, it could hurt the GOP badly.

Could this GOP convulsion over Sotomayor impel Obama to take a serious look at contesting Texas in 2012? He didn't even bother in 2008 and he still got solid support from Hispanics there, and blacks, and women, and moderates. Even if Obama doesn't win Texas, he scares the hell out of the Republicans particularly on the fundraising side, and he lays the groundwork for other, whiter Democrats to launch further assaults on southern states after Obama retires. Campaigning in Texas is expensive, but in 2008 Obama proved he could raise tons of money and bury the opposition with it.

Without Texas, there is no big state the GOP can rely on, in the Electoral College. And that's how landslides begin.

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