http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/50-percent-is-not-magic-number.html
In a clash between airplane and mountain, bet on the mountain.
In a clash between Republicans and facts, bet on the facts.
The articles shows that (a) Obama is likely to beat whichever challenger he faces in 2012, (b) Rasmussen's polls are against skewed against the Democrats, which we've discussed before, and (c) as Olberman intimated, Fox is a lot of things, but it's not a news organization.
Another hat tip to Nate.
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