Saturday, 10 November 2012

Republican delusions that cost them the election



Mitt Romney lost the election for a number of reasons. Some are specific to him – the flipflopping, the obvious contempt for the common people, and so on. But other issues still matter for the GOP’s prospects in the next election. Here are two.

The first thing is that the GOP’s thuglike political tactics didn’t work.

They lied over and over, and Obama and the media let them get away with it for months. Romney’s Medicare lie almost cost Obama Florida. But they went for the lie a couple of times too many, on Benghazi and on Jeep, and they were publicly busted for it.

They tried 400 million dollars worth of attack ads, and the quest to retake the White House and the Senate fell flat. In fact one of the biggest targets of these ads, Sherrod Brown, still won.

And the vote suppression efforts backfired too. Minorities in Ohio and Florida realized the Republicans were trying to push them away from the polls, and they showed up in staggering numbers to ensure their votes were counted. And now the Obama-run Department of Justice is going to investigate, although the Supreme Court may make that harder by invalidating the Voting Rights Act.

But the second thing, the big one? The Republicans have been trapped in what Rachel Maddow would call a “bubble” of extremist lunacy.

Extremist delusion is what impelled them to anger women with their attacks on Sandra Fluke and Planned Parenthood, and their idiotic comments on rape; likewise their obvious self-destructive contempt for blacks, Latinos, and gays. They truly do share Romney’s belief that half the country is a bunch of lazy traitorous socialist moochers who have just voted themselves bread and circuses; they really hate half of the entire country, and they don’t mind saying so out loud.

It was extremist delusion that forced Romney to campaign as a fascist in the primaries, giving Obama plenty of Romney quotes to bring up later, and impelled Romney to choose the would-be destroyer of Medicare as his running mate. And actually Romney is the latest in a line of Republicans who were actually moderates and nice enough personally, but were forced by the party to run as nasty sneering extremists and then lose. George H. W. Bush, Dole, McCain. Pro-choice? Who, me?

It was extremist delusion that led Republicans into the quicksand of “all government is bad including FEMA”, from which they could not extricate themselves when Chris Christie was embracing Obama on the Jersey shore.

It was extremist delusion that led to the proliferation of conspiracy theories, about the evil media, about lying pollsters, faked unemployment figures, voter fraud, free phone giveaways, the unions, Nate Silver, and even Democratic vote suppression.

It is because of these foolish-sounding extremist delusions that the GOP has failed to develop a stable of credible upcoming leaders. Because the party forces its leaders to spew extremist nonsense or be expelled, they have driven away big-name moderates like Colin Powell and Mike Bloomberg, and indeed anyone who believes in facts, math, science and economics. They are forced to consider people like Trump and Cain and Bachmann and Palin to be “leaders”, and call Newt Gingrich and John McCain “statesmen”, and consider George Will an intellectual heavyweight, and Dick Morris and Karl Rove political heavyweights, and Ayn Rand a philosopher. Meanwhile the Democrats have an impressive list of potential Presidents and Senators in the wings, and can reach out to a deep bench of leaders like Bill Clinton to speak creditably at their conventions, and a dazzling array of policy experts like Elizabeth Warren who are everything Paul Ryan wants to be and never can be.

And it is this range of delusions that impels Republicans to argue that Romney would have squeaked through as president if it hadn’t been for Sandy: America really wants to ban abortion and gay marriage, and keep the tax breaks for the rich and corporations, gut the unions, mess with Medicare and Social Security, repeal Obamacare. When confronted with the fact that most of America doesn’t want those things, they insist that the “real” America does, as though they get to decide who the real Americans are. Hint: they’re white.

George Will is out there saying conservatives in America outnumber liberals two to one: America still likes us! Mark McKinnon still insists that America is a center-right nation, even though GOP presidential candidates have won the popular vote just once in twenty four years: Bush, as a wartime incumbent with a listless opponent, got a whopping 50.7 percent when he ran for reelection. Republican Senator Ron Johnson said Romney lost because the voters were just uninformed – we just need to do a better job selling our “pure” ideas to those stupid rubes! To envision the typical Republican, picture a dumb white guy who is standing in front of a restaurant, having just been hugged by the girl he thought was his girlfriend, not quite grasping that he has just been friend-zoned.

After they failed in 2008 to persuade America that an Obama presidency would mean Obama taking all your guns, raising your taxes, putting an abortion clinic on every corner and killing your grandma….They are already at it, crying wolf again. Now that Obama has been reelected, America is dead, let’s start a revolution, stock up on guns!

So they’re not going to learn the right lesson from this race. They will need to be hit in the head at least one more time, probably two. They still insist on spending all their time in that bubble, talking only to each other because everyone outside the bubble is contaminated, and tuning out everyone except Fox and Rush. And already party officials are coalescing around the notion that the problem in the Romney race was not their philosophy, but their tactical performance and their candidates.

The GOP will lose in 2016 because of their split from the rest of the country...and reality


 
The shattering Democratic victory in the 2012 election revealed a nation split into two very different parts. The nation is divided into four neat portions: the Northeast, the Midwest, the West….and then there’s the South, not counting Florida which is its own strange self. The Northeast, Midwest and West constitute the three-quarters of the country that is sane….and then there’s the South.
 
In the sane three-quarters of the country, Obama won the popular vote by a staggering 7.3 million votes. In the South he lost by 4.7 million. The South is the one area in which Obama was outperformed by John Kerry’s race eight years earlier, because of the race issue. This really is a picture of two different countries.
 
In the sane three-quarters of the country, everything the Republicans tried, failed. Lies, evasions, attacks failed. Romney’s blatant lie about Jeep actually backfired. Rick Scott, John Husted and their fellow Republican criminals tried no less than seventy different ways to try to rig the voting, and failed to deliver either Ohio or Florida, a danger which Obama publicly demanded a fix for. The Israel-Iran scare tactics with Jewish voters fooled nobody. The Republicans had twenty one Democratic Senate seats to attack, and still failed to take the upper house.
 
The stunning amounts of conservative money, hundreds of millions worth of ads attacking Obama, couldn’t turn around those battleground states. With the exception of North Carolina, every state Obama chose to contest, he won. When the Republican donors carpet-bombed Sherrod Brown in Ohio, they failed there too: right now I am imagining the tiny, exhausted manager of a tiny, local radio station  in Cincinnati building a gigantic swimming pool with all that Republican ad money. Sheldon Adelson backed six candidates with his pots of money, and lost all six races; in all, a lot of crazed rightwing billionaires are a lot poorer right now, with nothing to show for it. You think maybe Adelson and the Koch brothers will hire some rightwing goons to beat up Rove and Dick Armey and try to get their money back?
 
Mourdock and Akin, the candidates for rapists everywhere, with a chance to pick up two sure Republican gains, went down in flames; so did rightwing bomb-throwers Allen West, Joe Walsh and George Allen, and loudmouths like Tommy Thompson, Connie Mack and Josh Mandel flopped too. Michele Bachmann almost went down with them. America went for liberalism, and went big: they voted for Elizabeth Warren the feared banking regulator, a number of vulnerable Democrats, Democrats in red states, Democratic counter-puncher Alan Grayson, a gay Senator, gay marriage, a vulnerable judge who supported gay marriage, gays in red states, legal pot, voting rights, college for illegal immigrants, support for unions and minimum wage increases, lifting the California GOP’s endless ban on any taxation, and tax increases for schools; state funding for churches was blocked, and again the two loudmouth anti-abortion Senate candidates were crushed. New Hampshire, once a conservative bastion, is now ruled by five women. In the sensible three-quarters of the country, joy and sanity reigns.
 
But in that one quarter of the country that still has Confederate flags hanging off of their trailers and in their garages, where you can open your window and hear every car and every kitchen tuned into Rush Limbaugh all day, where reality only rarely penetrates, they are still in denial. Romney wouldn’t even write a concession speech, and if you read the text of his speech from election night, you can see that it was just his victory speech with a few words changed: there was no way he could lose, right? We all know the polls were wrong, right? The Romney campaign, Karl Rove and Donald Trump tried to persuade Republicans that the race wasn’t really over, perhaps hoping to drag out a recount and portray Obama as an “illegitimate” president, but even Fox News and John Husted threw in the towel. Sorry, Karl, you’re not conning Fox into crowning the President like you did in the Bush-Gore race.
 
When the Republicans are not arguing that “Obama didn’t really win, he doesn’t have a mandate, we can ignore all the Democratic victories because the national popular vote was close, Republicans won the House which means the people are for us”, and so forth, etc ….when they do accept that they really lost, the excuses begin. It was Sandy, it was Christie, it was the media, it was Romney who wasn’t a real conservative. They just can’t accept that America has taken a good look at Republican “values” and rejected them.
 
And by the way, speaking of popular votes and mandates, Bush’s mandate in 2000 was 47.9 percent to 48.4. Bush was on the 47.9 end, half a million votes behind Gore. Thanks to Sandra Day O’Connor, who admitted she wanted Bush to win so she could retire, Bush proceeded to exploit his negative-half-a-percent-mandate to rule like a despotic, autocratic Bourbon king in France. “Don’t count the votes! Illegal wars! Illegal wiretaps! Illegal detention of people I don’t like! Torture is good, empathy is bad! Fire U.S. attorneys who refuse to persecute my enemies! Screw Congress! Screw the press! To hell with balanced budgets! To hell with our European allies! To hell with the facts! I’ve got political capital and I’m going to spend it! L’etat c’est moi!” I’m surprised he didn’t govern on a velvet throne with a giant turkey leg in his hand like Henry VIII. After losing the popular vote.
 
Just in case anyone forgot.
 
So the Republican holy war will continue. America is sick to death of the campaign of obstruction waged by the Republicans, and even mild-mannered Harry Reid has promised to change the filibuster rules, but still the GOP has no plans to abandon their blood feud with Obama. Mitch McConnell is already demanding that Obama move even further to the right, before the GOP really really promises to meet him in the “center” this time. And maybe even let him kick a football! Boehner is saying the same: his notion of bipartisan compromise is…the existing GOP position. Then the old mantra of destroying Obama’s first term and making Obama a one-term president, a colossal gamble that backfired, will shift to new calls for Issa to draft articles of impeachment, particularly if the Republicans do well in the midterms.
 
And while tactically the Republicans will continue to hound Obama, strategically they will be ever more firm in their resolve that America will love Republicans as long as they can just be conservative enough. Cal Thomas, the morning after the election, was ranting that America, in choosing the Democrats, had given up on morality: Republicans, conditioned for years to argue that anyone who challenged President Bush hated the troops and America itself, really do believe that anyone who disagrees with them is morally and ethically suspect, and that compromising with Democrats is akin to negotiating with terrorists. Appeasement. They will never let go of their far-right views, and will continue to expel apostates like Dick Lugar from their ranks. To wave an unlamented farewell to turncoats like Olympia Snowe. Day after day, they will further affirm their twisted view of reality in the Fox/Rush echo chamber.
 
They will continue to drive more and more sane people out of their party, so that even their base supporters will begin to crack. Obama, with the help of Latinos, won a majority of Catholics even though the church was screaming about Obama’s alleged attack on religious liberty, and Obama the scary Muslim even got thirty percent of the evangelical vote. Obama also made inroads with Cuban-Americans, so all you Republicans who think that nominating Marco Rubio is the short route to winning Florida and the White House might want to take a second look down there.
 
All of this sets up the Republicans for a serious butt-kicking in 2016.
 
In 2016 the Democrats will field a white candidate who is more immune to the personal attacks of the Republicans, someone readier than Obama for a street fight, defending a stronger economy, leading waves of Democratic voters who are hell-bent on overcoming the efforts of guys like Rick Scott to make it harder for them to vote, and an electorate enjoying the benefits of Obamacare, the safeguarding of Social Security and Medicare, and an improving job market. Unions will be energized by Scott Walker and John Kasich; women will be energized; the tea party will be discredited and the old white guys will begin to age off the system.
 
So the Democrats will be even stronger next time, and even begin to contest southern states by going after the minority vote. If a black presidential candidate can come within about ten points in Georgia, the Carolinas, Missouri, there is territory to exploit down there, once the Democrats begin rebuilding their party down south. Obama, a black candidate, only lost 55 to 44 in Mississippi! Better outreach to Latinos can put Texas into play, and once Texas is on the table, there is no big state that is still safe for the GOP. The more the old-white-guy demo shrinks, the purpler the South gets.
 
In the 2016 election, the Republicans will fall further behind with women, minorities, gays, and the young, in their obsessive focus on your typical Republican stalwart: an aging white male with a high-school education, with more tattoos than teeth. They will be leading their shrinking platoons of old white guys, and an increasingly reluctant phalanx of fatcat donors who are still wondering what they got for their money in 2012. Unless the zealots can figure out some way for their wimmin-folk to magically begin giving birth to more seventy-year-old angry white guys who like to wear hats and drive Buicks really really slow, they will have a serious demographic headache.
 
The GOP zealots will shout down the pragmatists. “Sure, I know, we need women, but we can’t back down on abortion or contraception! Sure we need Latinos, but we can’t budge on immigration! And hell no to gay marriage!”
 
And at the top of the ticket they will no longer have a man like Romney, a gifted liar who fooled a lot of people into thinking he was a moderate and a bridge-builder. Romney really was the best opponent they could have sent up against Obama. Next time Team Red will be led by a total whackadoodle like Bachmann, Santorum, Newt, a member of the dreaded Paul family, or Donald Trump. Or Sarah Palin, if the Gods of Politics are smiling on the Democrats. Or some thug-like coward like Chris Christie who will burst into flames of rage the first time a reporter asks him a hostile question. Or some reality-denier like Paul Ryan who will even lose a big part of the old white guy vote because of Medicare and Social Security. So the eight-year Democratic reign in the White House will be….sixteen years.
 
All you Republicans who are laughing at my prediction were the same ones ridiculing my predictions for Obama in 2008 and 2012. You just never learn, so you?
 

Chris Christie, our savior!


For anyone who thinks Chris Christie is the savior of the GOP, Chris Christie has only been in the governor’s chair since 2010, and has already added an amazing amount of baggage to his track record.

He won a local election by lying so egregiously about his opponents that they sued for defamation; a key county employee also sued for defamation. He was so controversial that he was primaried out of office by another Republican; Christie sued for defamation.

He then worked as a lobbyist, blocking regulations against fraud and other corporate skullduggery.

Despite having very little legal experience he got a job as U.S. Attorney by fundraising for Bush and getting a boost from Karl Rove; as U.S. Attorney he came under fire for giving no-bid contracts and legal breaks to relatives and allies, to campaign donors, and to one prosecutor who had declined to prosecute Christie’s crooked brother. One of his violations ruined the career of Michele Brown, an assistant U.S. Attorney. The House Judiciary Committee had to drag him in for questioning; Christie showed up, but then ignored the direction of the committee and ran out on the hearings. As fast as a man like that can “run”, anyway. The same Committee investigated his use of the court monitor system, and shortly thereafter the Justice Department changed the court-monitor rules to prevent corruption. His tenure as U.S. Attorney was also marred by the illegal use of entrapment and cellphone tracking; the ACLU had to go after him.

He tried to rig a senatorial election by issuing a frivolous subpoena to a Democratic Senator just before the election.

He campaigned on protecting the pensions of police and firemen, and then violated an agreement and cut their pensions as governor, which led to a lawsuit.

He cost New Jersey $400 million in education grants by fouling up the grant application, and then tried to blame Obama for his own mistakes, and fired the official who blew the whistle on him. The New Jersey Education Association publicly slapped down Christie for rejecting a compromise with the unions, which contributed to the mess. Finally he was slapped down by the state supreme court for trying to steal money from poor schools and give property-tax breaks which would disproportionately help the rich. And for deceiving the court in the process.

He essentially proposed to end Medicaid in his state, by lowering the eligibility threshold to around $5000 in income.

All this is why he had a net disapproval number in the polling in his own home state.

Latinos? We love Latinos!


One interesting thing has happened already in the post-mortems for the 2012 race: everyone, even the Republican wingnuts, agrees that the GOP must go after the Latino vote. Going after blacks is historically unlikely, and the party just has too many fences to mend with women, so Latinos it is. The final 2012 state, Florida, hadn’t even finished counting its ballots, before senior Republicans were sharing with the country their sudden epiphany on the immigration issue.

The problem for the Republicans is two-fold. First, Latinos aren’t stupid, and they haven’t forgotten the toxic anti-immigrant rhetoric spewed by the GOP in recent years. Second, the obvious GOP options for Latino candidacies are not so obvious when you look more closely. Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez are both new on the scene, taking office in 2011; they are both very conservative, they both have very thin resumes, and they both have ethical troubles. “I am the son of exiles!...Umm, no I’m not, sorry!” Rubio has the added advantage of being from Florida, but he also has the stench of Dick Cheney all over him. Ted Cruz is ineligible for the national ticket because he was born in Canada.

The Democrats have Julian Castro in their back pocket. Castro has only been mayor since 2009, and running for a state-wide election in Texas is a longshot, so a good cabinet job might be the thing to make him a viable VP contender. Meanwhile the Democrats should finally begin building their party in Texas and making Texas a purple state. Villaraigosa has ethical baggage and should be avoided.

The GOP could indeed go after women, possibly by nominating Kelly Ayotte; Nikki Haley on the other hand has some baggage. The Democrats obviously can counter with Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren or one of the other Senate newcomers like Tammy Baldwin.  And the GOP is unlikely to back away from its anti-abortion stance any time soon, which means the GOP ship will always be taking on water, in terms of women voters.

If the election is fought in one of these areas, the Republicans will be on offense because the Democrats have huge advantages within these groups now, and are more likely to lose support among these groups than gain it. But in both cases, the policies of the GOP will help the Democrats retain these supporters.

 

How the GOP will try to steal the 2016 election



Just in the last week of the election, the Republicans were caught using seventy different kinds of vote-rigging, to steal the election.

Not 70 instances of cheating. 70 different kinds of cheating. Count with me!

First, rig the entire process before the voters even start getting into the process:

  • Stacking elections boards with supporters of vote-suppression efforts
  • In Ohio, a Republican vote-suppression group, a group under criminal investigation, has managed to gets its employees hired as the actual poll workers
  • Firing election officials who try to make it easier for voters to vote
  • Failing to notify the public of rules changes
Next, get Democratic voters out of the process:

  • Illegal vote purges in Ohio
  • Invalidating voter registrations submitted on the last day of registration
  • Purging black voters off the rolls
  • Suing blacks in court to prove their registrations are valid
  • Launching challenges at the courthouse for legal voters who happen to be black
  • Voter data “lost” at the motor vehicle bureau
  • Imposing illegal residence requirements on students
  • Telling registered voters that they’re not registered
  • Setting up registration verification rules which are certain to miss thousands of voters
Deceiving voters:

  • Deceptive voting guides
  • Robocalls telling people they can vote Wednesday – calls from the supervisor of elections
  • Robo-call scare tactics; my favorite was Romney the Mormon telling voters that the Obama the Christian is the threat to Christianity
  • GOP efforts to steal ballots by circulating “Victory Vans” and telling people they can drop off their ballots there
  • Giving voters the wrong place and time to vote
  • Running illegal half-hour anti-Obama “TV specials” packaged as straight news stories during the news hour
  • Fake call centers taking “votes” over the phone
“Working the referees”

  • Disproved charges that computers are stealing Republican votes
  • Scary “voter fraud can send you to prison” signs
Making voting unpleasant, difficult, painful, impossible:

  • Cuts in early voting
  • Blocking parking lots at polling sites
  • Towing the cars of voters
  • Trying to block volunteers from handing out water to voters
  • Posting political signs illegally, including gay-bashing signs
  • Moving polling sites to churches with graphic anti-abortion posters
  • Defying court orders to allow voters to vote
  • Locking the doors on polling places when too many people want to vote
  • A bomb scare shutting down a voting site
  • Foot-dragging to get the electricity back on in the Democratic parts of Ohio
  • Ridiculously long lines and inefficiency in Democratic areas in Florida
Bullying tactics at the polls:

  • Tea Party groups drafting lists of black precincts to send their intimidation teams to; the lists were supposed to be secret
  • Forging signatures to get unauthorized “poll watchers” into the polls
  • Dressing up teaparty watchers to look like union members, to fake voters out
  • Sending “poll watchers” to intimidate minority voters and minority areas
  • Harassing voters right in the polling places
  • Telling voters, on no authority, that they can’t vote
  • Following and filming black voters as they fill out their election paperwork
  • Poll workers refusing to tell voters where their correct precinct is
  • Poll-workers caught switching Obama votes to Romney
  • Poll workers filling out spaces where voters left slots blank on their paper ballots
  • Stopping poll watchers from helping voters figure out the rules
  • Judge visiting polling place and ordering poll watchers not to help voters
  • Lodging false accusations of intimidation at black poll watchers , the sentiment being that any black person coming anywhere near a voting booth is a threat to Uhmurka
  • Attempting to drive away neutral election monitors entirely
Trying to play the “Voter ID” game:

  • Ads insisting you need ID when legally you don’t
  • Posting signs illegally demanding ID
  • Scary looking “poll watchers” demanding that voters show ID while still outside the polling places, in violation of court orders
  • Poll workers demanding ID even when the law says otherwise
  • Poll workers imposing harsher ID rules than the law allows
  • Illegally turning away voters without ID
  • Asking only blacks for IDs
  • Asking only women for IDs
Making it harder for voters to vote some other way:

  • Shutting down early voting
  • Illegally changing the Ohio rules on provisional voting, in violation of the law and court decrees
  • Giving poll workers broad leeway to demand that voters use only provisional ballots
  • Forcing people to use provisional ballots even when they’re registered
  • Forcing people with provisional ballots to return with IDs
  • Illegally forcing voters to fill out the poll workers’ portion of provisional ballots, allowing for errors which permit the poll worker to throw out the ballot
  • Absentee ballot requests not answered
  • Throwing absentee vote applications in the trash
Cheating outright:

  • Republicans trying to double-vote in Nevada
  • Sending GOP crooks to the polls to prove that Democratic voter fraud happens by…committing voter fraud. And getting caught and arrested.
Throwing sand in the electoral machine:

  • Mysteriously losing or running out of ballots in Democratic precincts
  • Sending the wrong ballots to the wrong precincts
  • “Printing errors” that make some Florida ballots unreadable
  • Broken voting machines in Democratic precincts
  • Machine rigged to turn Obama votes into Romney votes
  • Mysterious disappearance of black votes in Fla due to a “computer glitch” which turned out to be, of course, “human error”
  • Using unauthorized software in voting machines
Flunking out of the Electoral College:

  • Once again, Republicans are trying to game the Electoral College, by seeking to change the rules in a large, blue state. The proposed change would split up the state’s electoral votes instead of giving them all to the winner of that state, and compounding the problem by allocating the electoral votes by congressional district, right after the Republicans gerrymandered the districts. They tried without success to impose these new rules in California and Pennsylvania, and now they are trying it in Ohio. Which is kind of funny, really: they wouldn’t be trying to split the Ohio electoral votes if they thought they had a shot at re-taking the state in 2016, would they?
The extraordinary element in Florida is the emergence of Rick Scott. The man is a felon – he got busted in court for defrauding Medicare so egregiously that he was fired from his own company, a firm which was forced to pay $2 billion in fines, the biggest fraud case in history. This crook is the guy the Republicans elected governor, the man they chose to control their elections. Now why would you want a crook running your elections, I wonder?

Since the GOP is discovering that they can’t win elections with their toxic policies, their lies, or their terrible candidates….expect them to game the system even more next time.  

 

Friday, 9 November 2012

The next fight isn't in D.C.

The Republicans know they have an existential crisis – they face extinction. They know they have nothing more to offer the American people. They know that with the American economy under their control for thirty years, we’ve followed the path of tax cuts for the rich, all the way into a morass of titanic debt and staggering deficits. They know that their chest-beating neo-con foreign policy has gravely damaged not only our military but our national reputation abroad. They know their social policies are widely viewed by people who are not white evangelicals, and by most of the world, as barbaric, trying to throw women back into the nineteenth century, throw gays and lesbians into the closet of discrimination, throw blacks in jail, and throw Latinos out of the country entirely. They know they have driven sane moderates out of their party, leaving only the crooked rich guys and the delusional redneck wingnuts. Not enough money to buy elections, not enough votes to win. They know they’re going the way of the Whigs, because their policies are incredibly destructive.

They had one great chance left, the fact that they were competing against a black President who doesn’t even have the wherewithal to defend himself against their lies; they almost exploited that opening into a presidential win by Romney. And they are going to pray for one more chance to avoid sliding into permanent oblivion, either a Democratic opponent who is another Carter-Dukakis-Obama milquetoast who won’t fight back. For 2016 the Democrats have a lot of strong candidates, white boys from the south and west like Schweitzer and O’Malley who can credibly go to places like Texas and Georgia and start working to make them Democratic again. They also have Hillary, who can spin up turnout among the wingnuts like nobody else. The wingnuts have been repeating for years, as an article of faith, that because the Clintons had the nerve to take from George H. Bush the White House that they thought they had bought and paid for, it must have all been, you guessed it, a conspiracy. And that they must be destroyed. Whitewater! All those murders! Vince Foster! Black helicopters! Paula Jones! Huma Abedin! But that may not be enough. But Hillary is perfectly capable of defending herself. Democrats are learning, very slowly, that they need to nominate fighters who can defend themselves.

So, since Republicans can no longer win by peddling discredited policies or by bullying on weak Democratic candidates, their new strategy is to stop Democrats from exercising any power at all, by using obstruction in Congress to prevent Democrats from accomplishing anything, by exploiting Citizens United to buy the election process outright, and by blocking up the judicial nomination process so that only Republicans get on the federal bench. They know they can no longer compete in the democratic process unless they cheat. And above all, they intend to steal elections.

So that is the next battle. The coming fights won’t be about Santorum versus Christie, or Hillary versus Cuomo, or tax policy or Syria or gay marriage or health care. They will be about the unglamorous grunt work in the statehouses, to keep people like John Husted from stealing elections in Ohio, or Rick Scott in Florida, to stop Scot Walker from busting unions just because they vote against him, to make sure that we have early voting and absentee, to make sure polling places in the ghetto and the barrio have enough ballots and machines, to stop voter purges and intimidation, to shoot down vote-fraud conspiracy theories, to stop voter ID. They will be about electing Democratic governors to stop Republican election fraud. They will be about knowing who your state-level legislators actually are: the battle to save democracy will happen in the states, not Washington. They will be about getting your family and your friends out there to register to vote. They will be about rebuilding the Democratic party in southern states. Only when we have strong Democratic majorities across Washington and across the country, can we begin the work of repopulating the judiciary with sane judges, ending the wave of filibusters in the Senate, overturning Citizens United, and saving American democracy.

Traditional America is dead!

Currently people like Rush Limbaugh are lamenting the death of “traditional America”. Well, why should we mourn? A century ago, women couldn’t vote, blacks could be murdered with impunity, Latinos were invisible, and gays were criminals; there was no Social Security or Medicare; the utilities refused to give rural America electricity; a woman’s life expectancy was 51 years. They have country songs about these “good old days”: in these “good old days” we endured a Depression, several recessions, two world wars, Korea and Vietnam, McCarthy, Watergate, the terror of the Cold War, but that was okay, because white men were still running the show, right? Whenever these circus clowns say the word “traditional”, translate it to “white”. The soul of Rush Limbaugh is the soul of every mob of “traditional” illiterate Know-Nothing bullies who ever waited at the New York docks to beat up the new Irish immigrants, then the Italians, then the Poles, then the Puerto Ricans….

“Take America back!”….from the scary black guy. Because America, and all it represents, belongs to white people. All those other people are just here on sufferance. To be seen and not heard.

“Let’s secede!” Some Texas Republicans are sounding the tocsin already. In other words, we only like democracy when we win. When we lose, we want to run away from home.

 

How Obama saved Christianity


For four years now, Republicans have been screeching that the scary Muslim from Kenya was going to destroy American capitalism and Christianity. And the irony is that Obama has actually saved both.

More than anyone else, Obama saved capitalism. He stopped the slide in the markets and employment, he saved the financial industry and the auto industry, he saved five million jobs despite Republican opposition, and he began undoing the damage and the fractured policies of the Republicans who preceded him.

But he also may have saved Christianity.

For forty years now, Christianity in America has been hijacked by right-wing zealots who read the Old Testament but got bored and stopped reading before Jesus entered the picture. And they were so enthralled with this judgmental, Leviticus-driven view of the world that they tried to export these religious views out into the world of policy, politics, economics, science, education and medicine. They forced the whole country to put their most cherished political issues at the top of the agenda.

They went gunning after women on abortion and contraception. They went after our kids, and their own kids too, on school vouchers, school prayer, evolution, sex education, banning books, HPV shots. They hammered away at the separation of church and state by putting the Commandments in courtrooms and by pursuing faith-based initiatives. They invaded science by declaring war on stem cell research and cloning, infected the medical world with their views on assisted suicide, resuscitation and euthanasia, and showed their social brutality with their views on gays and lesbians.

Two thousand years after Saint Paul did all he could to expand Christianity by removing the need for the Jews and pagans of the Roman world to follow outmoded Mosaic laws, American Christians tried to take their faith backward, not just to the days of Jesus, but to the days of Moses, invoking the Torah to condemn anyone who didn’t meet their standards of behavior. As the Republican big tent shrunk, so did the Christian big tent.

So a lot of people turned away from Christianity. The rightwing loons made Jesus uncool. People who sang along with Jesus Christ Superstar 40 years ago, sang “Jesus is just alright with me” in the 1970s, joined the kumbaya guitar-strumming churches, boasted of being born again in the 1980s, began to feel embarrassed. Many left their churches, or suffered in silence while the faithful around them spewed hate and intolerance. The ranks of atheists, agnostics, Pastafarians, Wiccans, Buddhists and other “Others” grew by leaps and bounds. Polls showed that the number of people attending church went down, but the number of people claiming to be churchgoers went up: people were turning away from the churches but were afraid to admit it publicly and were looking for some other path to faith.

Now, sane people want to reclaim Christianity, to restore the Sermon on the Mount to their faith, to shift away from hate and toward compassion in hard times. Likewise a tsunami-like backlash is beginning to react against the unholy, destructive alliance of Republican politicians and Taliban-like evangelicals which dominated American society for thirty years.

Obama, when you look closely, is at the center of all this. He is breaking up that unholy alliance, forcing conservatives to reexamine what they really believe and to wonder where their intolerance has taken them. He is reaching out to his own allies without pandering to them: he is forcing his friends in the black churches to reexamine gay rights, and impelling his Latino friends to reconsider the bêtes noires of the Catholic Church, contraception and abortion. He has put us on a path toward a future in which religion and politics stay in their own respective lanes, in which religious belief can grow, keep up with the times, and rediscover tolerance. It took the Catholic Church three hundred years to admit that man was an animal and the earth was a satellite, but perhaps modern religion, freed from the grip of the arch-conservative zealots, can move more quickly and remain relevant for a modern America.

But that can only happen with someone like Obama at the helm. Whenever a Republican takes over, evangelicals succumb to the delusion that they are God’s chosen leaders for our nation, that only their religious views matter, that you can’t be a liberal and a good Christian.

Ban heterosexual marriage!

Having heard many, many people in my state argue that we cannot allow gay marriage, people like Matt Birk of the Baltimore Ravens, let me make a contrarian argument.

For five thousand years, straight people, and only straight people, have been entrusted with the institution of marriage. And for five thousand years they have made total hash of it, a record of disastrous failure. Marriages destroyed by infidelity, drinking, drug abuse, immaturity, domestic violence, abandonment, child abuse, incest, and mental cruelty. Heterosexuals have proved that they cannot be trusted with this institution anymore.

I propose that for the next five thousand years, only gays and lesbians can marry. Straight people will just have to get along with the same deal that gays have had to put up with. Fighting with lawyers and doctors over legal rights, health care, child custody, hospital visitation. Because opponents of gay marriage insist, vehemently, that forcing people who love each other to live like that is okay, right? Force straight people to live in the shadows, if they think it's okay to treat gays that way.

So Matt, your team has had its four downs. For the next five thousand years it's the other team's turn. Gays get to marry and people like Matt don't. They can still have kids, buy houses, make their lives, but no marriage. Who's with me?

Saturday, 7 January 2012

Could the Beatles be saved?

The main thing that broke up the Beatles was leadership. When the Beatles first began, John Lennon saw the group as his band, and no one disputed it, at least not openly. Early on there was even a notion to call themselves Long John and the Silver Beatles. Lennon retained his good pal Stu Sutcliffe as bass player, ignoring McCartney’s objections that Sutcliffe was clueless as a musician. And although the formal reason for Pete Best’s ouster from the band was his poor performance at the Parlophone audition, the fact is that the other Beatles were already thinking of firing him, and a key reason was probably that Pete Best was acquiring his own independent heart-throb following among the fans, a role which Lennon saw as his own. The fact that Best’s fan base went mental when Best was fired, and tried to rough up the remaining Beatles on the street, would have confirmed Lennon’s suspicions that Best could threaten his control of the band. It couldn’t have been a complete accident that Best’s replacement, the entirely homely Ringo Starr, was no threat to compete with Lennon for the girls.

During the heyday of Beatlemania, Lennon retained his central role. He did a lot of the writing and lead singing. And the Beatles had help running the store in the early going: George Martin taught them to be recording artists while Brian Epstein tried, with very uneven results, to manage their tours and finances. But during the middle Beatle period, two things happened: first, the Beatles, more and more successful and confident of their own abilities, began to listen to Martin and Epstein less and less, making more decisions among themselves. And second, as Lennon withdrew into a quasi-depressive period on and off, from around 1965 through 1967, Paul McCartney began to challenge Lennon’s leadership of the band. The success of Sergeant Pepper, based on a McCartney brainstorm, was followed by a year in which McCartney proposed a number of projects which greatly irritated the other three: the wildly amateurish Magical Mystery Tour, repeated attempts to get the band back on tour, and the decision to move to a new studio space so they could film themselves creating new music, an effot which only served to showcase the growing dysfunction in the band, for all the world to see.

Lennon grew more hostile to McCartney’s growing assertiveness, and was joined in this sentiment by George Harrison, who was irritated by McCartney’s treatment of him in the studio and by the resistance to recording more of Harrison’s songs. Harrison and Lennon got artistic backup from Phil Spector who, among other things, radically changed McCartney’s songs without consulting him, especially Long and Winding Road. Harrison and Lennon also sought business guidance from the incredibly abrasive Allan Klein, ignoring McCartney’s efforts to get his new in-laws to manage their affairs instead.

Meanwhile, Lennon had always taken the stance that it had been his band all along, and accordingly he would decide when it disbanded. When he advised McCartney that he intended to do just that, and was keeping his decision a secret for contractual reasons, McCartney struck back, preemptively announcing his own departure from the band. Lennon and Harrison lashed out at him publicly, and then tried to block McCartney’s efforts to release his solo album and leave their Apple label.

Lennon’s shock at McCartney’s action may have been exacerbated by the fact that he seemed to be in denial; after several years of fame during which the few people who got close to him were not the sort to tell him things he didn’t want to hear, he seemed to be oblivious to the effect that his actions had on others, or to McCartney’s growing dismay at Lennon’s behavior and his “leadership”. Once Yoko Ono entered Lennon’s life, he abandoned his wife and son and took up housekeeping with his future wife. McCartney sympathized with John’s wife Cynthia and he adored their son Julian – in fact he seemingly spent more quality time with Julian than Lennon did. When McCartney wrote Hey Jude, the song was meant as a gesture of support for Julian and his mother, vis-à-vis Lennon and Yoko. In a way it expressed defiance against Lennon. But Lennon insisted on interpreting the song to mean that McCartney was tacitly accepting Lennon’s imminent decision to shut down “his” band, of which McCartney was merely a junior member. Lennon also ignored McCartney’s other implicit criticisms of Yoko in songs like Get Back, and his slam against Lennon’s buddy Allen Klein in You Never Give Me Your Money.

The Beatles also found other things to argue about, especially as 1967 rolled into 1968 and 1969. Brian Epstein had always been an inept business manager, but his death in 1967 left the Beatles with no business guidance at all. Barely able to manage their existing musical ventures, they decided to expand outward, into producing, publishing, fashion, electronics, and so on – Apple Corps. They hoped that their undeniable genius in art would betoken equal competence in business.

That this did not pan out, was due in no small part to the fact that they let very few people close enough to give them advice, and some of the few who made it into the inner circle were spectacularly unfit to provide advice, like the Maharishi, and of course Allen Klein and a con man named “Magic Alex”. A series of “grownups” such as George Martin and consultants from the business sector tried without success to urge the Beatles to rein in their excesses, both in business and in art, but they just didn’t want to hear it. The generation gap was never wider than during this period, and the Beatles, like their fans, resisted taking advice from the old guard, confident that they could do better.

Accordingly Apple Corps was run by the aforementioned Klein and by their former roadie Neil Aspinall. The “electronics division” was “led” by “Magic Alex” who kept promising all sorts of magical innovations like musical wallpaper, which never seemed to materialize in the real world; in the end the division lost around half a million dollars. Their Apple Boutique was run by a couple of hippies known collectively as “The Fool” and by one of Lennon’s childhood pals; it lost $300,000 with incredible speed, in part due to rampant theft, and was shut down. Apple Publishing published…one book. This Apple chaos only added to the friction among the Beatles.

It was only during this period in 1968, when McCartney’s bold musical schemes were failing, and when their business ventures were going sideways, that it finally occurred to the Beatles and their fans that the invincible quartet, despite four magical years in which they seemingly could do no wrong, were indeed capable of failure and error.

They also had a clear and growing divergence of musical taste. During Beatlemania the Beatles were all united in the desire to write simple, marketable pop songs, which was indeed all they were capable of, early on. But fame gave them the chance to explore new directions, and they didn’t all want to go the same way. McCartney explored more experimental artistic directions than he is given credit for, but his musical tastes in the actual studio still ran heavily toward pop; he drove Lennon to despair with a series of relentlessly Edwardian “cute Beatle” numbers such as Penny Lane, Lovely Rita, When I’m Sixty Four, Your Mother Should Know, Martha My Dear, Ob La Di, Honey Pie, and Maxwell’s Silver Hammer. McCartney was quite open in his preference for this twee stuff: “I would have liked to have been a writer in the Twenties, because I like the top hat and tails thing.” What McCartney called “top hat and tails”, Lennon condemned as “granny shit”.

McCartney was more charitable toward Lennon’s work, although he ground his teeth when Lennon forced the inclusion of Revolution Number 9 on the White Album. And all the while Harrison was campaigning to get more of his own songs released, finally getting four songs into the massive White Album and two big hits on Abbey Road.

Adding to the musical friction was the fact that McCartney was emerging as the most talented musician, by far. Early on, McCartney was persuaded to take up the often-thankless bass-guitar job, although he was a better guitarist than Lennon and arguably as good as Harrison; he may have taken on this subservient role partly to stay on the good side of the more dominant Lennon (and perhaps to prevent Lennon from hiring another no-talent dunderhead like Sutcliffe). As the sessions moved forward, McCartney showed more and more ability, playing guitar solos that Harrison couldn’t handle, teaching Ringo Starr how to play the drums on Ticket To Ride, filling in on drums when Ringo was staging his occasional “work stoppages”, and leading the way in exploring keyboards – all while writing the textbook on bass guitar which bassists are still cribbing from today. This afforded him confidence which occasionally veered into arrogance, especially in his dealings with Harrison.

In addition to the power struggles and the pressures of business and art, were the very forces of time and space conspiring to increase the friction and the tension. During the Beatlemania years they were writing and recording around 20-30 songs a year, touring, filming, managing the media, and everything else, an absurdly frantic pace of production. So exhaustion can be added to the growing list of factors contributing to the final collapse.

Even when they stopped touring, they merely traded one prison for another: instead of being locked in hotel rooms while screaming fans stalked outside, they were now locked in the less-than-hospitable confines of the Abbey Road studios, with poor living accommodations, lousy food, and growing artistic and emotional pressures – and again unable to leave the studio, because the fans awaited. As long as they remained Beatles, they would be, in effect, hunted.

Also, for their last year as a band, Lennon introduced his girlfriend into the studio without consulting anyone. She entered what had been their private refuge from all outsiders, she altered the power dynamics by giving Lennon a new ally while also causing friction between Lennon and the other three, she interfered with the artistic process (chirping and moaning along in a couple of White Album songs), she helped push Lennon into artistic areas which the other three didn’t want to explore, and she made Lennon think seriously about life after the Beatles. She also reflected the growing desire of all the Beatles to get on with family life outside the Beatle world. By introducing Yoko into the Beatle world, Lennon was indicating clearly that he still considered the Beatles to be his band, and he would introduce new people and new artistic ideas into the mix whether the others liked it or not. McCartney initially tried to make it work – he even let Yoko sing backup on Birthday, early on – but ultimately she changed the dynamic in the studio, permanently.

Add to this the fact that McCartney was not nearly as progressive in his attitudes toward women as one might expect: his lengthy relationship with Jane Asher collapsed because he was incapable of managing a romance with an independent-minded girl who insisted on pursuing her own career. Likewise his attitude toward the female contribution to his art was quite chauvinistic – one of the last points of friction that led to his departure from the band was Phil Spector’s decision to add female voices to Long And Winding Road, which McCartney explicitly said he never would have accepted on a Beatle record (although he made an exception for Yoko’s contributions to the barely-serious Birthday). So when Yoko arrived in the studio and began inserting herself into the Beatles creative process, conflict was inevitable.

So, could the split-up have been avoided? If they had been receptive to good advice, could someone have sat them down and steered them back on track? Here are a few things a “wise uncle” could have told them:

First, slow down! From the summer of 1968 through the summer of 1969, they recorded the White Album, filmed and recorded Let It Be, recorded Abbey Road, and popped out four songs for the Yellow Submarine project, and a bunch of singles like Hey Jude, Revolution and Get Back. That’s what, fifty songs in a year? A song a week? All while dealing with two marriages, and Apple Corps, and everything else. Instead perhaps they should have taken half of that year, got out of that awful studio they hated, and just gone in four separate directions, to forget about the Beatles, go live a real life with real people, wives and kids – otherwise you have nothing to write about. And think long and hard about whether they wanted to make more music at all, and if so, what kind, and with whom.

Second, move to New York or LA for a while. Live in a community that is used to dealing with celebrities without smothering them, talk to entertainment pros, get new ideas.

Third, hire business professionals and listen to what they say.

Fourth, release all that artistic pressure by doing side projects, perhaps an album for each member. So each of them gets one project for which he is boss and can steer the ship as he likes, and do all those songs that drive the other Beatles up the wall. George could have unloaded his gigantic catalogue of compositions (as indeed he did with All Things Must Pass) and McCartney could have gotten a lot of his “granny music” out of his system without bothering Lennon with it. I think a key point of friction, especially with respect to McCartney’s more gratingly poppy music, is that Lennon not only had to listen to the stuff, he had to learn it and play it, over and over and over. A perfect example was Ob La Di: after playing it dozens of times, Lennon couldn’t stand it anymore, stomped out for a joint, and then returned to play the piano part more forcefully than before. He insisted that that was how the song should be played, and got his way. Lennon possibly would have found McCartney’s sillier work more endurable if McCartney had gone off to record it with the Badfinger boys instead, leaving Lennon out of the process. So if the Beatles had each recorded an album of material without the other three, a lot of conflict could have been avoided.

Fifth, mix up the line-up? Here’s one bizarre idea. The Beatles were a band of guys who liked to experiment, but with a bass player who wanted to do pop. The Beach Boys were a band of guys who wanted to do pop, but with a bass player who wanted to experiment. What if McCartney and Brian Wilson had swapped bands for an album each?

Sunday, 30 May 2010

So who has the momentum for the midterms?

Obama has already passed health care reform.


Financial reform? Polls show the American people want it, so Obama wins either by passing it, or by pounding on the Republicans for blocking it; the Republicans also blocked unemployment benefits repeatedly, and tried to kill a number of jobs bills.


Immigration reform? Polls say America wants it, Obama has a bill, Republicans are blocking it. Again, he wins either way. The Arizona law is the gift that keeps on giving for Obama – that, and he deployed troops to the border, and caught and deported more illegals than Bush.


Don’t Ask Don’t Tell? Polls support repeal, Obama has a bill, the Republicans can either lose by fighting it or lose by letting it pass.


Elena Kagan? Again, Obama can’t lose. 2-0 in Court nominees.


Energy legislation? With BP destroying the state of Louisiana, Obama could get that too, particularly since the Bush-era regulators helped make the spill happen. He has Republicans jumping all over the place, actually hollering for more government action and condemning the corporate villain while simultaneously trying to cap BP’s liability, so it’s a double-win for Obama.


Scandals and stupid stuff? How about Rand Paul’s 7-8-9 explanations of his stance on Jim Crow laws, the Chicken Lady, Jan Brewer and the entire Arizona government, Mark Souder making an abstinence video with his mistress, the cop-killing teabagger, Bob McDonnell the friend of blacks and gays, Nikki Haley doing the nasty with a blogger, Michael Steele the gaffe machine, desperate candidates trying to dash to the right to fend off the teabaggers and then dash left to grab the independents, Tim “I found the Ark of the Covenant” D’Annunzio being ridiculed by his own party, Vaughn Ward stealing Obama’s speeches, primary opponents like McCain and Hayworth tearing each other’s throats out (we never declared war on Hitler!), the Westboro hatemongers, teabaggers sending death threats to Democrats, Palin’s repeated grand-mal seizures of cluelessness, Glenn and Rush…?


Boys and girls, there’s your leadership A-team! And most of that was just in the last month or so!


Republican ideas? In 1994 they won with Contract With America, but this time they have tried three times to launch their own manifesto of ideas, and each time they ended up mumbling…”hey, you voters, do you have any ideas we could use?” And one of the three efforts was funded by…taxpayers! The idea bag is empty.


So rolling into November, the Obama scorecard could read health care, financial reform, DADT, two Supreme Court justices, immigration reform, energy legislation, and bunch of smaller stuff. While the Republicans wallow in their own mistakes and intellectual vacuousness. And of course, vote suppression.


The Republicans have thrown the whole kitchen sink at Obama. Their bag of tricks is empty. What more can they come up with, to regain the momentum?