Wednesday, 23 October 2013

First crack at handicapping 2016

We do have preliminary polling data for the race in 2016. Yes, it’s only 2013, but the numbers are a good place to start because most of the potential candidates are well-known, so we can factor out name recognition for the most part.

In head-to-head polls from this year, Hillary beats any Republican challenger. Christie and Bush were the only ones to come within single digits of her.
Biden loses to Christie, and ties Bush and Ryan.
Cuomo loses to Christie and Ryan, and ties Rubio.

Comparing favorables and unfavorables, Hillary is up by plus 15 to 20 even after the Benghazi fuss on the Hill. Biden is up a bit.
Christie is up by around 20, Rubio is up around 10, Ryan and Paul are up a bit. Bush is a bit underwater. Cruz is underwater in every poll.

In short, with Hillary the Dems win; with anyone else it’s a tough fight. The GOP does better with Christie in particular, Bush and Ryan, not so well with Paul, Cruz and Rubio.

The best deal for Democrats is Hillary v Cruz. Team Red does best with Christie-Cuomo.

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